But if the zoning is not approved, and the land is sold to Sauron, Tar-Mairon, Servant of Melkor what might the development look like?

 

If we don't approve the zoning the week, a potential buyer is Sauron, the Deceiver, who'll be unconstrained by zoning and will build what's most profitable: the total domination of all mankind.  You must choose between these two options.   But seriously: do we in the Shire really have "no control" if we turn down the zoning week?    That's not true, and here are the details.

If someone tells you that the "Town will  have no control" you can immediately tell them 

"That is not true.  The Affordable homes act specifically allows towns to enforce reasonable regulations on bulk, height, yard sizes, lot area, setbacks, open space, building coverage, and perform site plan review."

Just memorize that. and practice it on your spouse and cat.

What the Affordable Homes Act actually requires and allows

In 2024 the state legislature passed the Affordable Homes act and section 121 granted special zoning rights to land that's sold by the state Department of Capital Asset Management and Maintenance (DCAMM):

"Notwithstanding chapter 40A of the General Laws or any other general or
special law or local zoning or municipal ordinance or by-law to the contrary, a
city or town shall permit the residential use of real property conveyed by the
commissioner pursuant to section 121 for housing purposes as of right, as
defined in section 1A of said chapter 40A, notwithstanding any use
limitations otherwise applicable in the zoning district in which the real
property is located including, but not limited to, commercial, mixed-use
development or industrial uses. A city or town may impose reasonable
regulations concerning the bulk and height of structures and determining
yard sizes, lot area, setbacks, open space and building coverage
requirements and a city or town may require site plan review; provided
however, that the city or town shall permit not less than 4 units of housing per acre."

Not much to go on, but this is what granted special rights for any land that the  sells from now until forever -- regardless of how it's zoned currently, it can be used for housing purposes.

The town "shall permit not less than 4 units of housing per acre."

But also, the town "may impose reasonable regulations concerning the bulk and height of structures and determining yard sizes, lot area, setbacks, open space and building coverage requirements and a city or town may require site plan review."

There is not nearly enough detail for anyone to go on.  The law left it to the Executive Office of Housing and Livable Communities (EOHLC) to draft regulations that spelled out the details.

The EOHLC ultimately drafted those regulations this year:  760 CMR 77.0

The Massachusetts Municipal Association submitted it's concerns about the new regulations, which extend beyond what the Affordable Housing Act actually required of towns.   That's generally not legal -- and it may be challenged in the future -- but they will have to try to use that regulation first.

What would actually happen if the proposed zoning failed on November 16th

As this is one of the first applications of the Affordable Homes Act we're in uncharted waters, so no way to say.   

DCAMM can certainly convey the land to a developer with no restrictions of their own making -- but:

• They'd be doing that of their own volition:  absolutely trashing their own reputation, and making us the poster child for reining in this already controversial law. 
• Lancaster would be free to adopt its own zoning for the site regarding "bulk and height of structures and determining yard sizes, lot area, setbacks, open space and building coverage
  requirements."
• DCAMM and the developer would have to navigate the current availability of water for the site, with or without Lancaster's assistance.  They are already tasked with designing an on-site waste system for the hundreds of units of housing they want to build, as the sewer district cannot support them.
• Any potential buyer/developer would need to find financing for a site where the zoning is completely up in the air and water and sewage is whatever you can make of it.

 
There would probably be some collateral damage for Lancaster:

• The town needs DCAMM's help to require mixed-use development at the site -- I don't think we can require it with zoning.   That said, DCAMM had not committed to very much -- just $1.6 million of commercial space, which might pay $20K in taxes each year.
• The town needs DCAMM's help to include a requirement for affordable housing at the site.    There's a case to be made that DCAMM has not committed much as it is: thirty units of affordable housing would be helpful to thirty families, but Lancaster has 189 and needs more than 274 units to reach the 10% requirement.   If DCAMM requires less than 10% -- and they're prepared to consider proposals for as little at 7.5% -- it would actually move us further the goal.

That said: there's absolutely nothing that prevents DCAMM from absorbing a defeat next week and proposing something new.    If there's a reason the development can't be smaller, it hasn't been presented.

Nothing in the Affordable Homes Act says that it's this plan, or Sauron.